Birth Spacing and Fertility in the Presence of Son Preference and Sex-Selective Abortions: India's Experience Over Four Decades

Over the past four decades, the Hindu women in India most likely to use sex-selective abortions—well-educated women with no sons—had the most substantial lengthening of birth intervals and the most biased sex ratios. As a result, we now see cases that reverse the traditional spacing pattern, with some women with no sons having longer birth intervals than those with sons. Those least likely to use sex-selective abortions—less-educated women in rural areas—still follow the traditional pattern of short spacing when they have girls, with only limited evidence of sex selection. Because of the rapid lengthening in spacing, the standard fertility rates substantially overestimated how fast cohort fertility fell. Despite a convergence, cohort fertility is still 10%–20% higher than the fertility rate and above replacement level for all but the best-educated urban women. Infant mortality has declined substantially over time for all groups, with the fastest decline among the less educated. Short birth spacing is still associated with higher mortality, although considerably less so for the best-educated women. There is no evidence that repeated sex-selective abortions are associated with higher infant mortality for the child eventually born. Finally, it does not appear that the use of sex selection is declining.