Establishment of CORONET; COVID-19 Risk in Oncology Evaluation Tool to identify cancer patients at low versus high risk of severe complications of COVID-19 infection upon presentation to hospital

Background Cancer patients are at increased risk of severe COVID-19. As COVID-19 presentation and outcomes are heterogeneous in cancer patients, decision-making tools for hospital admission, severity prediction and increased monitoring for early intervention are critical. Objective To identify features of COVID-19 in cancer patients predicting severe disease and build a decision-support online tool; COVID-19 Risk in Oncology Evaluation Tool (CORONET) Method Data was obtained for consecutive patients with active cancer with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 presenting in 12 hospitals throughout the United Kingdom (UK). Univariable logistic regression was performed on pre-specified features to assess their association with admission (≥24 hours inpatient), oxygen requirement and death. Multivariable logistic regression and random forest models (RFM) were compared with patients randomly split into training and validation sets. Cost function determined cut-offs were defined for admission/death using RFM. Performance was assessed by sensitivity, specificity and Brier scores (BS). The CORONET model was then assessed in the entire cohort to build the online CORONET tool. Results Training and validation sets comprised 234 and 66 patients respectively with median age 69 (range 19-93), 54% males, 46% females, 71% vs 29% had solid and haematological cancers. The RFM, selected for further development, demonstrated superior performance over logistic regression with AUROC predicting admission (0.85 vs. 0.78) and death (0.76 vs. 0.72). C-reactive protein was the most important feature predicting COVID-19 severity. CORONET cut-offs for admission and mortality of 1.05 and 1.8 were established. In the training set, admission prediction sensitivity and specificity were 94.5% and 44.3% with BS 0.118; mortality sensitivity and specificity were 78.5% and 57.2% with BS 0.364. In the validation set, admission sensitivity and specificity were 90.7% and 42.9% with BS 0.148; mortality sensitivity and specificity were 92.3% and 45.8% with BS 0.442. In the entire cohort, the CORONET decision support tool recommended admission of 99% of patients requiring oxygen and of 99% of patients who died. Conclusions and Relevance CORONET, a decision support tool validated in hospitals throughout the UK showed promise in aiding decisions regarding admission and predicting COVID-19 severity in patients with cancer presenting to hospital. Future work will validate and refine the tool in further datasets. ### Competing Interest Statement R Lee speaker fees BMS and Astrazeneca, M Rowe honoraria from Astellas Pharma, speaker fees MSD and Servier. C. Wilson consultancy and speaker fees Pfizer, Amgen, Novartis, A Armstrong conference fee Merck, spouse shares in Astrazeneca. T Robinson financial support to attend educational workshops from Amgen and Daiichi-Sankyo. C Dive, outside of this scope of work, has received research funding from AstraZeneca, Astex Pharmaceuticals, Bioven, Amgen, Carrick Therapeutics, Merck AG, Taiho Oncology, Clearbridge Biomedics, Angle PLC, Menarini Diagnostics, GSK, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, BMS, Novartis, Celgene, Thermofisher. C Dive is on advisory boards for, and has received consultancy fees/honoraria from, AstraZeneca, Biocartis and Merck KGaA. ### Funding Statement Rebecca Lee and Tim Robinson are supported by the National Institute for Health Research as a Clinical Lecturer. Talvinder Bhogal is supported by the National Institute for Health Research as an academic clinical fellow. Umair Khan is an MRC Clinical Training Fellow based at the University of Liverpool supported by the North West England Medical Research Council Fellowship Scheme in Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics, which is funded by the Medical Research Council (Award Ref. MR/N025989/1). C Dive C5757/A27412), the CRUK Manchester Centre Award (C5759/A25254), and is supported by the NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre. Funding for COVID-19 work has been provided by The Christie Charitable fund (1049751). ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: HRA and Health and Care Research Wales (HCRW) approval granted (reference 20/WA/0269) All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Code for the tool is available at Github (https://github.com/oskwys/CORONET). Raw data is available upon request to corresponding author, however may not include all details due to information governance regulations.