Distorting Arrow-Debreu Securities: New Entropy Restrictions Implied by the Option Cross Section
Social Science Research Network(2020)
Abstract
Replacing equity return (as in the equity risk premium) with returns on an arbitrary contingent claim, we obtain a new class of economic risk premiums to impose upon candidate models. These risk premiums reflect the distance between the physical and risk-neutral moments for asset returns, can be estimated in a model-free fashion from the option cross section, and provide sharp information in distinguishing alternative models. Confronting leading macro-finance models with our risk premiums, we uncover a wide dispersion in performance across candidate models. Our evidence points to the importance of incorporating persistent stochastic volatilities and/or higher moments in fundamentals to reconcile with the option data, as exemplified by Bansal and Yaron (2004) and Bekaert and Engstrom (2017).
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Key words
new entropy restrictions,arrow-debreu
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