Factors That Can Trigger Depression: An Application of Machine Learning to National Health Survey Data in Brazil
P2P E INOVAÇÃO(2021)
摘要
According to data from the last National Health Survey (PNS), conducted in 2013 by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in partnership with the Ministry of Health, 7.6% of people aged 18 and over received diagnosis of depression. Therefore, based on this research, the purpose of this study was to identify factors that may be relevant to a possible diagnosis of depression, using machine learning techniques. The binary logistic regression model was chosen as the machine learning technique, with progressive and regressive methods for selecting variables and a model built by the researcher, generating seven different models. The model’s performance evaluation was made by comparing some metrics such as Cox-Snell R2 and Nagelkerke R2, which presented remarkably close results. Based on these models, 37 explanatory variables were selected which were applied to a new logistic regression model. The results showed that some variables significantly increased the chance of a positive diagnosis of depression as well as some variables were indicative of a reduction in the chances of this diagnosis.
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