Managing Moose from Home: Determining Landscape Carrying Capacity for Alces alces Using Remote Sensing

In temperate forests of the northeastern U.S., moose (Alces alces) populations are adapted for mixed-age heterogeneous landscapes that provide abundant herbaceous forage in warm months and coniferous forage during winter. Heterogeneity of forest stands is driven by management activities or natural disturbance, resulting in a multi-age forest at a landscape scale. Here, we present a method to estimate landscape carrying capacity of moose by combining remote sensing classification of forest cover class with literature or field-based estimates of class-specific forage abundance. We used Landsat imagery from 1991 to 2013 for the Allegheny National Forest and 2013-2018 for the Adirondack Park, and associated training polygons, to predict based on NDVI and SWI whether a forested landscape fit into one of three cover classes: mature forest, intermediate timber removal, or overstory timber removal. Our three-classes yielded a mean land cover prediction accuracy of 94.3% (Khat = 0.91) and 86.9% (Khat = 0.76) for ANFR and AP, respectively. In the AP, we applied previously calculated summer crude protein values to our predicted cover types, resulting in an estimated average carrying capacity of 760 moose (SD +/- 428) across all sampling years, similar in magnitude to a density estimate of 716 moose (95% CI = 566-906) calculated during the same time. Our approach was able to accurately identify forest timber treatments across landscapes at differing spatial and temporal scales and provide an alternative method to estimate landscape-level ungulate carrying capacity. The ability to accurately identify areas of potential conflict from overbrowsing, or to highlight areas in need of land cover treatments can increase the toolset for ungulate management in managed forest landscapes.