The influence of the Arctic Oscillation on North Atlantic wind and wave climate by the end of the 21st century

This work analyses the change in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index by the end of the 21st century and its relationship with present and future met ocean conditions on the North Atlantic Ocean. The seasonal distribution of the AO index changes is analysed and an annual regression line is obtained. Pearson correlation is computed between AO index and wind and wave parameters. It is observed that for future climate, negative AO events become weaker but more frequent and positive index events remain stable in intensity, but their frequency is reduced. At the end of the 21st century, the correlation between significant wave height, peak period and zonal wind remains the same as in the present climate: positive (negative) correlation north (south) of 50°N. Results show that future climate correlation on Wave Watch III forced by EC-Earth (EC-Earth/WW3) projections using the high-emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and AO index will remain similar to the one observed in the present climate.