Drivers of unique and asynchronous population dynamics in Malagasy herpetofauna

Aim A long history of isolation coupled with complex landscapes makes Madagascar ideal for exploring the historical factors that have shaped patterns of population diversity and endemism. Many species-level studies have suggested Late Quaternary climate change may have influenced population dynamics in the tropics, but unique biomes and individual species properties may have driven idiosyncratic responses to these shifts. Here, we use community-scale population genetic data to investigate the impact of Quaternary climate cycles on shared demographic response and investigate the contributions of both biotic and abiotic factors which shape these demographic trajectories. Location Madagascar. Taxon Reptiles and Amphibians. Methods Using community-scale population genetic data, we implement a hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation approach to evaluate the degree of synchronous population expansion during glacial cycles across herpetofaunal assemblages both within and across discrete biomes and taxonomic groups. We use Bayesian model averaging to identify intrinsic and extrinsic conditions predictive of individualistic demographic change. Results We find that demographic responses are not uniform across groups, with more than 50% of all populations showing signal of recent expansion. Our explanatory models indicate species occupying narrow elevational ranges had a higher probability of expansion, while amphibian assemblages showed higher genetic diversity and greater departures from population neutrality. Expansion events were largely asynchronous, with coexpansion found in less than half of all populations. Exceptionally, 69%-74% of all humid-restricted populations coexpanded during the start of the Last Glacial Period at around 100 kya, supporting the hypothesis of a more extensive humid forest cover for Madagascar during this time. Main conclusions We show that differences in life history and regional biogeography have contributed to patterns of richness and endemism found across Madagascar, and historical connectivity across humid forests has been an important factor in shaping present-day diversity and endemism on Madagascar, particularly for amphibians.