Assessment of drought risk for winter wheat on the Huanghuaihai Plain under climate change using an EPIC model-based approach

Climate change-induced drought poses a serious negative impact on global crop production and food security. The Huang Huai Hai (HHH) Plain, one of the most important grain production areas in China, is heavenly stricken by drought. Motivated by formulating drought risk prevention strategies that adapt to climate change on the HHH Plain, therefore, the present study aims to quantitatively evaluate the winter wheat drought risk under multiple climate scenarios using the Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model. Based on the well-validated EPIC model, the drought hazard intensity (dHI), physical vulnerability (pV), and drought risk (dR) of the HHH Plain from 2010 to 2099 are assessed. Temporally, the dR showed an increasing trend in the long term, the high dR areas increased by 0.63% and 1.18% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Spatially, dR showed a pattern of high in the south and low in the north whether under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenario. Comparatively, the dR was 0.211 under the RCP4.5 scenario which was slightly higher than that under the RCP8.5 scenario, i.e. 0.207. The Huanghuai Plain agricultural subregion will be a high dHI-pV-dR region. The temperature increase might be the main factor affecting the wheat drought risk.