Effectiveness of 2 and 3 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Doses against Omicron and Delta-Related Outpatient Illness among Adults, October 2021 – February 2022

Background We estimated SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron-specific effectiveness of 2 and 3 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses in adults against symptomatic illness in US outpatient settings. Methods Between October 1, 2021, and February 12, 2022, research staff consented and enrolled eligible participants who had fever, cough, or loss of taste or smell and sought outpatient medical care or clinical SARS-CoV-2 testing within 10 days of illness onset. Using the test-negative design, we compared the odds of receiving 2 or 3 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses among SARS-CoV-2 cases versus controls using logistic regression. Regression models were adjusted for study site, age, onset week, and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as (1 – adjusted odds ratio) x 100%. Results Among 3847 participants included for analysis, 574 (32%) of 1775 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the Delta predominant period and 1006 (56%) of 1794 participants tested positive during the Omicron predominant period. When Delta predominated, VE against symptomatic illness in outpatient settings was 63% (95% CI: 51% to 72%) among mRNA 2-dose recipients and 96% (95% CI: 93% to 98%) for 3-dose recipients. When Omicron predominated, VE was 21% (95% CI: -6% to 41%) among 2-dose recipients and 62% (95% CI: 48% to 72%) among 3-dose recipients. Conclusions In this adult population, 3 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses provided substantial protection against symptomatic illness in outpatient settings when the Omicron variant became the predominant cause of COVID-19 in the U.S. These findings support the recommendation for a 3rd mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose. ### Competing Interest Statement Ana Florea reports unrelated institutional grant support for research from Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Moderna, and Pfizer. Carlos G. Grijalva reports consulting fees from Merck, Pfizer, and Sanofi Pasteur, and institutional grant support from the Agency for Health Care Research and Quality, Campbell Alliance/Syneos Health, the Food and Drug Administration, and the National Institutes of Health. Emily T. Martin reports institutional grant support from Merck. Arnold S. Monto reports personal fees from Sanofi and nonfinancial support from Seqirus. Mary Patricia Nowalk reports unrelated institutional grant support and personal fees from Merck Sharp & Dohme and institutional investigator-initiated grant support from Sanofi Pasteur. Sara Y. Tartof reports unrelated institutional grant support from Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline. No other potential conflicts of interest were disclosed. ### Funding Statement This work was supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through contracts 75D30121C11513, 75D30121C11519, 75D30121C11529, 75D30121C11909, 75D30121C12246, 75D30121C12279, and 75D30121C12339. At Vanderbilt, the project was also funded by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) Clinical Translational Science Award (CTSA) Program, award number 5UL1TR002243-03. At Pittsburgh, the project was also supported by the National Institutes of Health through grant UL1TR001857. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: IRBs of the Centers for Disease Control, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, University of Michigan, University of Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Baylor Scott & White Health, Kaiser Permanente Washington Research Institute, and Marshfield Clinic Research Institute gave ethical approval for this work. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes De-identified data produced in the present study may be available upon reasonable request to the authors.