Current Climate Overrides Past Climate Change in Explaining Multi-Site Beta Diversity of Lauraceae Species in China

Background: We aimed to characterise the geographical distribution of Sorensen-based multi-site dissimilarity (beta(sor)) and its underlying true turnover (beta(sim)) and nestedness (beta(sne)) components for Chinese Lauraceae and to analyse their relationships to current climate and past climate change. Methods: We used ensembles of small models (ESMs) to map the current distributions of 353 Lauraceae species in China and calculated beta(sor) and its beta(sim) and beta(sne) components. We tested the relationship between beta(sor), beta s(ne) and beta(sim) with current climate and past climate change related predictors using a series of simultaneous autoregressive (SAR(err)) models. Results: Spatial distribution of beta(sor) of Lauraceae is positively correlated with latitude, showing an inverse relationship to the latitudinal alpha-diversity (species richness) gradient. High beta(sor) occurs at the boundaries of the warm temperate and subtropical zones and at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau due to high beta(sne). The optimized SAR(err) model explains beta(sor) and beta(sne) well, but not beta(sim). Current mean annual temperature determines beta(sor) and beta(sne) of Lauraceae more than anomalies and velocities of temperature or precipitation since the Last Glacial Maximum. Conclusions: Current low temperatures and high climatic heterogeneity are the main factors explaining the high multi-site beta-diversity of Lauraceae. In contrast to analyses of the beta-diversity of entire species assemblages, studies of single plant families can provide complementary insights into the drivers of beta-diversity of evolutionarily more narrowly defined entities.