Identifying cost-effective recovery actions for a critically endangered species

Threatened species managers are often required to make swift decisions in the face of considerable uncertainty. We tested a structured approach for evaluating conservation options for the critically endangered orange-bellied parrot. The Orange-bellied Parrot Recovery Team provides advice to government agencies to inform the allocation of a limited number of captive-bred birds to different release scenarios. Using a structured expert elicitation approach, we determined that scenarios where more fledglings were released were more cost-effective compared to other options. Following this finding in 2019, the recovery team adjusted plans and allocated additional birds to fledgling release, a response that contributed to an increase in wild birds migrating in 2020 and 2021. The challenges facing orange-bellied parrot conservation, including limitations in animals, time and resources, and high uncertainty, are common for threatened species recovery programs. Here we show that a structured process can help managers grapple with these complex trade-offs to make timely decisions.