Growth Analysis of Untreated Meningiomas under Observation

Background When meningiomas are small or asymptomatic, the decision to observe rather than treat requires balancing the growth potential of the lesion with the outcome and side effects of treatment. The aim of this study is to characterize the growth patterns of untreated meningiomas to better inform the clinical decision-making process. Methods Patients with meningiomas were identified from 2005 to 2015. Those without treatment who had been followed for 1.5 years, with three magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, were identified. Scans were measured with orthogonal diameters, geometric mean diameters, and volumes using the ABC/2 method. Regression modeling determined what growth pattern these parameters best approximated. Results Two hundred and fifteen MRI scans for 34 female (82.9%) and 7 male (17%) patients with 43 tumors were evaluated. Initial tumor volumes ranged from 0.13 to 9.98 mL. The mean and median initial volumes were 2.44 and 1.52 mL, respectively. Follow-up times ranged from 21 to 144 months, with a median of 70 months. There were 12 tumors (28%) whose growth rates were significantly greater than zero. For all tumors, use of a linear regression model allowed accurate prediction of the future size using prior data. Conclusion Three-quarters of presumptive meningiomas managed conservatively do not grow significantly. The remainder have significant growth over time, and the behavior could be approximated with linear regression models.