How future climate change and deforestation can drastically affect the species of monkeys endemic to the eastern Amazon, and priorities for conservation

The intensive deforestation, together with the projections of climate change, indicates severe effects of human actions on biodiversity in the Amazon, especially on species that depend on forest cover, such as primates. In this research, we identified priority areas for the conservation of 12 primate species endemic to the eastern Amazon. We created habitat suitability models for each species based on climatic conditions and deforestation under current and future scenarios (2050). We compared possible losses or gains of potential distribution areas in the present and future, based on climate change and loss of forest cover. Our results show that 11 of the 12 species could lose an area of climate suitability in the future, and more than 30% of them might lose over 90% of their range. Considering both climate change and deforestation, 8 out of 12 endemic primate species from the eastern Amazon could have their distribution area reduced by over 90% by 2050. About 25% of these species could become extinct in the next 30 years, with a predicted decrease of more than 98% in their distribution. However, this pessimistic scenario could be assuaged with an increase of 2 to 10% of protected areas, placed in specific prioritized areas, as we defined in our study as a high conservation priority, especially in the northeast of the eastern Amazon. The current scenario of devastation in the Amazon needs to be immediately reversed in time to recover native environments that promote the conservation of biodiversity. Our research tries to point out a strategy directed to conserving the Amazon primates and their habitats.