ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK POSED TO HUMAN HEALTH BY HEAVY METALS IN TOPSOIL OF AN INDUSTRIAL PARK IN FUXIN BASED ON MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

This study used Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic risk assessment to evaluate the risk posed by eight heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr6+, Cu, Pb, Hg, Ni, Co) in topsoil of an industrial park in Fuxin to human health. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted for each parameter of the risk assessment method. The results showed that the risks posed by heavy metals to human health followed a lognormal distribution, with a carcinogenic risk of 1.56 x 10(-5) +/- 1.15 x 10(-5), falling within the risk assessment criteria range of I and II . However, the hazard quotient was 7.53 x 10(-1) +/- 5.66 x 10(-1), falling between 2.33 x 10(-2)-4.21. In addition, the probability of the hazard quotient exceeding 1 (an unacceptable level) was 25%. The heavy metals with the greatest contributions to carcinogenic risk and total hazard quotient were As and Co, respectively. Among the human exposure parameters, the risk assessment was most sensitive to the adult daily soil intake (OSIR) and adult exposure duration (ED).