IDENTIFICATION OF AN AUTOPHAGY-RELATED GENE SIGNATURE AND ESTABLISHMENT OF A NOMOGRAM PREDICTING SURVIVAL OF LOWER-GRADE GLIOMA

Abstract OBJECTIVE The aim of our study was to establish an autophagy-related signature for individualized risk stratification and prognosis prediction in LGG. METHODS RNA-sequencing data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), Genome Tissue Expression (GTEx), and Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas (CGGA) were used. The 232 ARGs were obtained from the Human Autophagy Database (HADb). Univariate and Lasso regression were employed to identify differentially expressed autophagy-related genes (ARGs) and establish a prognostic signature whose performance was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. RESULTS Fifty-three autophagy-related DEGs were identified. Four autophagy-related genes (DIRAS3, GNAI3, PTK6, and BIRC5) were selected to establish the prognostic signature and verified in the CGGA validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression indicated that the autophagy signature (HR, 95%CI, P) was an independent predictor of prognosis in LGG. Finally, a prognostic nomogram incorporating age, grade, targeted therapy, new event, tumor status and autophagy signature achieved excellent predicative performance (AUC 0.907, 0.865 and 0.858 for 1-year, 3-year and 5-year survival, respectively) verified by Time-dependent ROC, C-index (0.844, 95% CI, 0.799 to 0.889; P = 1.01e-12) and calibration plots. CONCLUSION The present study constructed a robust four autophagy-related gene signature. A prognostic nomogram in risk stratification and prediction of overall survival in LGG was established. The findings may be beneficial to individualized survival prediction and medical decision-making for LGG.