A Decentralized Kidney Transplant Biopsy Classifier for Transplant Rejection Developed Using Genes of the Banff-Human Organ Transplant Panel

Introduction A decentralized and multi-platform-compatible molecular diagnostic tool for kidney transplant biopsies could improve the dissemination and exploitation of this technology, increasing its clinical impact. As a first step towards this molecular diagnostic tool, we developed and validated a classifier using the genes of the Banff-Human Organ Transplant (B-HOT) panel extracted from a historical Molecular Microscope(R) Diagnostic system microarray dataset. Furthermore, we evaluated the discriminative power of the B-HOT panel in a clinical scenario. Materials and Methods Gene expression data from 1,181 kidney transplant biopsies were used as training data for three random forest models to predict kidney transplant biopsy Banff categories, including non-rejection (NR), antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR), and T-cell-mediated rejection (TCMR). Performance was evaluated using nested cross-validation. The three models used different sets of input features: the first model (B-HOT Model) was trained on only the genes included in the B-HOT panel, the second model (Feature Selection Model) was based on sequential forward feature selection from all available genes, and the third model (B-HOT+ Model) was based on the combination of the two models, i.e. B-HOT panel genes plus highly predictive genes from the sequential forward feature selection. After performance assessment on cross-validation, the best-performing model was validated on an external independent dataset based on a different microarray version. Results The best performances were achieved by the B-HOT+ Model, a multilabel random forest model trained on B-HOT panel genes with the addition of the 6 most predictive genes of the Feature Selection Model (ST7, KLRC4-KLRK1, TRBC1, TRBV6-5, TRBV19, and ZFX), with a mean accuracy of 92.1% during cross-validation. On the validation set, the same model achieved Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.965 and 0.982 for NR and ABMR respectively. Discussion This kidney transplant biopsy classifier is one step closer to the development of a decentralized kidney transplant biopsy classifier that is effective on data derived from different gene expression platforms. The B-HOT panel proved to be a reliable highly-predictive panel for kidney transplant rejection classification. Furthermore, we propose to include the aforementioned 6 genes in the B-HOT panel for further optimization of this commercially available panel.