Tracking Transfer of Carbon Dioxide Emissions to Countries along the Silk Roads Through Global Value Chains

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has aroused rich discussions about the possible increase in carbon dioxide emission under the arduous global carbon dioxide emission reduction task. Adopting the methods of input-output technique and complex network analysis, we first construct a fairer method to trace carbon dioxide emission transfer based on global value chains, then trace the source of carbon dioxide emission transfer to the Silk Roads countries with a long-term multiple regional input-output database. We find that, first, after the proposal of the BRI, the total direct carbon dioxide emissions of the Silk Roads countries and China’s proportion of carbon dioxide emission transfer to the other Silk Roads countries have both declined. Second, the Silk Roads countries are generally the net receivers of carbon dioxide emission transfer, and the inflow is mainly distributed in Southeast Asian countries and core countries in other sub-regions. Then, the transfer of carbon dioxide emission accepted by the Silk Roads countries comes mostly from large developing countries, such as China, Russia, and India, and developed countries, such as the United States, Japan, and Germany. The products are mainly concentrated in energy and chemical industries, as well as heavy industries, such as mining and quarrying, and metal products. We suggest that, due to the high degree of spatial and industrial concentrations of carbon dioxide emission transfer, it is necessary to make targeted policies for these countries and industries to reduce these transfers.