Physical characteristics of northern forested lakes predict sensitivity to climate change

Evidence suggests that boreal-lake ecosystems are changing rapidly, but with variable ecological responses, due to climate warming. Paleolimnological analysis of 27 undeveloped northern forested lakes showed significant and potentially climate-mediated shifts in diatom communities and increased carbon and biogenic silica burial. We hypothesize the sensitivity of northern forested lakes to climate change will vary along two physical gradients: one reflecting direct, in-lake climate effects (propensity to thermally stratify), the other reflecting indirect watershed effects (watershed to lake-surface area ratio). We focus on the historical response of algal communities to test our two-dimensional sensitivity framework. Historical algal response was summarized by measures of diatom community turnover, changes in species and diagnostic species groups, and measures of siliceous algal and overall primary production (biogenic silica, carbon burial). Measures of algal production increased across all lake types, with carbon burial proportionately higher in polymictic lakes. Greater diatom community change occurred in deep, stratified lakes with smaller watersheds, whereas diatom species groups showed variable responses along our two-dimensional sensitivity framework. Physical characteristics of lakes and watersheds could serve as predictors of sensitivity to climate change based on paleo-indicators that are mechanistically linked to direct and indirect limnological effects of climate change.