An analysis of OPEC oil production reaction to non-OPEC oil supply

This paper examines the impact of non-OPEC oil supply on OPEC oil production level at different quantiles of the OPEC production empirical distribution. It employs the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lags (QARDL) model that allows to probe simultaneously short-term connections and long-run cointegrating relationships across a range of quantiles. The analysis is undertaken using monthly data from January 1993 to March 2020. The main findings show that the influence of non-OPEC production on OPEC production is symmetric in the long-run but quantile-dependent in the short-run. In the short-run OPEC production decreases significantly following an increase of non-OPEC production. However, in the long run, the increase in non-OPEC production causes OPEC production to rise. Furthermore, the results show that oil prices increase OPEC production in the long-and short-run. The potential policy implications for OPEC and non-OPEC oil production are discussed.