Risk factor analysis and nomogram development for steatorrhea in idiopathic chronic pancreatitis

Objectives Steatorrhea, a sign of severe pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI), is related to consequences caused by pancreatitis. This study aimed to identify predictors and to construct a nomogram for steatorrhea in idiopathic chronic pancreatitis (ICP). Methods ICP patients admitted to our hospital from January 2000 to December 2013 were enrolled in this retrospective-prospective cohort study and randomly assigned to the training and validation cohorts. The cumulative rate of steatorrhea was calculated. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to identify predictors for steatorrhea and construct the nomogram. Internal and external validation of the nomogram was then performed. Results There were 1633 ICP patients enrolled, with a median follow-up duration of 9.8 years and 20.8% (339/1633) of patients developed steatorrhea following onset of ICP. Steatorrhea was observed in 93, 115, and 133 patients at 1, 3, and 5 years following diagnosis of CP, with a cumulative rate of 6.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.1%-7.9%), 8.0% (95% CI 6.2%-9.8%), and 9.3% (95% CI 6.6%-12.0%), respectively. Male sex (hazard ratio [HR] 2.479, P < 0.001), diabetes mellitus at/before diagnosis of ICP (HR 2.274, P = 0.003), and aged less than 18 years at onset of ICP (HR 0.095, P < 0.001) were identified risk factors for steatorrhea. Initial manifestations were associated with development of steatorrhea. The nomogram was proven to have good concordance indexes. Conclusions We identified predictors and developed a nomogram for predicting steatorrhea in ICP. It was recommended that high-risk populations be followed up closely, which might contribute to the early diagnosis and treatment of PEI.