Interaction between geriatric syndromes in predicting three months mortality risk

Objectives Capturing frailty using a quick tool has proven to be challenging. We hypothesise that this is due to the complex interactions between frailty domains. We aimed to identify these interactions and assess whether adding interactions between domains improves mortality predictability. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we selected all patients aged 70 or older who were admitted to one Dutch hospital between April 2015 and April 2016. Patient characteristics, frailty screening (using VMS (Safety Management System), a screening tool used in Dutch hospital care), length of stay, and mortality within three months were retrospectively collected from electronic medical records. To identify predictive interactions between the frailty domains, we constructed a classification tree with mortality as the outcome using five variables: the four VMS-domains (delirium risk, fall risk, malnutrition, physical impairment) and their sum. To determine if any domain interactions were predictive for three-month mortality, we performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results We included 4,478 patients. (median age: 79 years; maximum age: 101 years; 44.8% male) The highest risk for three-month mortality included patients that were physically impaired and malnourished (23% (95%-CI 19.0–27.4%)). Subgroups had comparable three-month mortality risks based on different domains: malnutrition without physical impairment (15.2% (96%-CI 12.4–18.6%)) and physical impairment and delirium risk without malnutrition (16.3% (95%-CI 13.7–19.2%)). Discussion We showed that taking interactions between domains into account improves the predictability of three-month mortality risk. Therefore, when screening for frailty, simply adding up domains with a cut-off score results in loss of valuable information.