Abstract P032: Initiating Hypertension Treatment to Prevent Incident Cardiovascular Disease: A Population Estimate Using the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model

Background: Hypertension is a leading preventable cause of CHD, stroke, and heart failure (HF). WHO hypertension guidelines recommend initiating first dose medication in hypertensive adults with access to healthcare, yet many US adults with a usual source of care are not receiving treatment. We estimate the population impact of initiating hypertensive therapy in untreated US adults with uncontrolled blood pressure (BP) and access to usual healthcare on incident CVD. Methods: We used the CVD Policy Model, a dynamic state-transition model of CVD risk factors, events, and outcomes to simulate the impact over 10 years of treating uncontrolled BP in our target population of US adults 35-94 years of age with no prior CVD, baseline systolic BP ≥140mmHg, and no current hypertensive medication use, estimated from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey years 2015-2018. We initiated first dose medication in the target population reporting access to a usual source of healthcare and at least two visits per year. We used the Law, Morris and Wald equation to estimate the systolic BP effect size for a standard first dose of medication. Results: Initiating hypertension medications in those with currently untreated but with regular healthcare access would prevent 214,000 incident CVD events in the US, a quarter of which (52,000) are incident heart failure (Table 1). First dose treatment (and maintenance) would be expected to reduce incident CHD by 9.1%, HF by 6.1%, ischemic stroke by 8.1%, and hemorrhagic stroke by 11.3% over the decade, compared to no treatment. Treatment of hypertension would have the greatest relative benefit in the prevention on incident CVD events in those younger than 65, compared with those over 65 years of age. Conclusion: In the US population with regular access to healthcare, initiating first dose medications for hypertension in those with elevated blood pressure but currently untreated would reduce incident CVD in both sexes and all age groups, with particular benefit for prevention in those less than 65 years of age.