How will Autonomous Vehicles Impact Car Ownership and Travel Behavior

The results of studies investigating the impact of automated vehicles can vary substantially, partly due to different assumptions on key input parameters such as costs and travel behavior. We therefore present a detailed cost analysis that was performed for 17 metropolitan areas in 15 different countries. Furthermore, we show the results of a comprehensive survey that was conducted in the canton of Zurich of Switzerland, with the intent to investigate both mobility tool ownership (such as cars, public transport subscriptions, etc.) and travel behavior. The cost study shows that the costs of pooled automated taxis will be comparable to the costs of local public transport in high-income countries. Due to the lower share of labor costs, the effect of automation on the full costs per passenger kilometer will be substantially smaller in other countries, however. The survey revealed that people are not willing to change the number of cars they own, should automated vehicles be available as private cars as well as taxis. Regarding the travel behavior, people mainly intend to switch from the conventional car to automated cars, rather than from slow modes and public transport.