One scheme fits all: A central fiscal capacity for the EMU targeting eurozone, national and regional shocks

European Economic Review(2024)

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摘要
This paper proposes a central fiscal capacity for the euro area that generates transfers in response to eurozone, country, and region-specific shocks. The main novelty of this fiscal capacity is that it allows a joint response to these three types of shocks within a single scheme. Based on NUTS3 regional data over the last two decades and regional fiscal multiplier estimates, our analysis shows that - with a limited risk of moral hazard - substantial stabilisation could have been achieved in response to the eurozone and regional shocks, while country-specific shocks were on average weaker and therefore needed less stabilisation.
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关键词
Central fiscal capacity,Euro area,Macroeconomic stabilisation,Multilevel factor model,Bayesian inference
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