Projected Effects of Disruptions to HIV Prevention Services During the COVID-19 Pandemic Among Black/African American Men Who Have Sex with Men in an Ending the HIV Epidemic Priority Jurisdiction

Abstract Disruptions in access to in-person HIV preventive care during the COVID-19 pandemic may have a negative impact on our progress towards the Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the United States. We used an agent-based model to simulate HIV transmission among Black/African American men who have sex with men (MSM) in Mississippi over five years to estimate how different reductions in access affected the number of undiagnosed HIV cases, new PrEP starts, and HIV incidence. We found that each additional 25% decrease in HIV testing and PrEP initiation was associated with decrease of 20% in the number of cases diagnosed and 23% in the number of new PrEP starts, leading to a 15% increase in HIV incidence from 2020 to 2022. Unmet need for HIV testing and PrEP prescriptions during the COVID-19 pandemic may temporarily increase HIV incidence in the years immediately following the disruption period.