Simulation Model Estimating Lifetime Health and Economic Outcomes of Prediabetes Screening by One-Hour Plasma Glucose

Background: One of the current methods to diagnose prediabetes and predict diabetes incidence is based on 2-h plasma glucose (2-hPG) value following 75-g oral glucose tolerance test. Evidence demonstrates that 1-hour post-load plasma glucose (1-hPG) ≥ 155 mg/dl (8.6 mmol/L) in those with normal glucose tolerance at 2-hPG is highly predictive for T2D incidence. We conducted a health economic analysis to estimate long-term cost-effectiveness of using 1-hPG as compared to 2-hPG to screen and assess diabetes risk. Methods: The main outcome of the study was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. We used a Monte Carlo-based Markov simulation model to simulate long-term effects of the two screening strategies on clinical and cost-effectiveness outcomes. The base case model included 20.000 simulated patients over 35-years. Transition probabilities were retrieved from landmark studies. Direct medical costs were sourced from the literature and inflated to 20Euros. Results: In the lifetime analysis, 1-hPG was projected to increase the number of years free from disease (2yr/patient) ; to delay the onset of T2D (1yr/patient) ; to reduce the incidence of T2D complications (0.6 Relative Risk/patient) and to increase the QALY gained (0.58/patient) . Though testing the 1-hPG resulted in higher initial costs owing to a larger number of preventive treatments, long-term diabetes and complications costs were reduced leading to -31,225,719.82€ saving over a lifetime as compared to 2-hPG. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was -8,214.7€ per each QALY gained for the overall population. Conclusions: Screening prediabetes by using 1h-PG is feasible and cost-effective resulting in QALYs gained and reduced costs. Notwithstanding the higher initial costs of 1-hPG compared to 2-hPG, due to the incremental number of preventive treatments, long-term diabetes and complications costs were reduced expecting an overall cost saving of -8,214.7€ per each QALY gained. Disclosure M.Andellini: None. M.Manco: None. M.Esposito: None. A.Tozzi: None. M.Bergman: None. M.Ritrovato: None.