High-Definition Hurricanes Improving Forecasts with Storm-Following Nests
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY(2022)
摘要
To forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and structure changes with fidelity, numerical weather prediction models must be "high definition," i.e., horizontal grid spacing <= 3 km, so that they permit clouds and convection and resolve sharp gradients of momentum and moisture in the eyewall and rainbands. Storm-following nests are computationally efficient at fine resolutions, providing a practical approach to improve TC intensity forecasts. Under the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system was developed to include telescopic, storm-following nests for a single TC per model integration. Subsequently, HWRF evolved into a state-of-the-art tool for TC predictions around the globe, although its single-storm nesting approach does not adequately simulate TC-TC interactions as they are observed. Basin-scale HWRF (HWRF-B) was developed later with a multistorm nesting approach to improve the simulation of TC-TC interactions by producing high-resolution forecasts for multiple TCs simultaneously. In this study, the multistorm nesting approach in HWRF-B was compared with a single-storm nesting approach using an otherwise identical model configuration. The multistorm approach demonstrated TC intensity forecast improvements, including more realistic TC-TC interactions. Storm-following nests developed in HWRF and HWRF-B will be foundational to NOAA's next-generation hurricane application in the Unified Forecast System.
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关键词
Hurricanes/typhoons, Tropical cyclones, Numerical weather prediction/forecasting, Model evaluation/performance, Forecast verification/skill
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