Why Does Convection Weaken over Sumatra Island in an Active Phase of the MJO?

This study investigated the diurnal cycle of convection over Sumatra Island in an active phase of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) during the Pre-Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC) observation campaign in December 2015 based on in situ and satellite observations and a convection-permitting numerical model. Observations suggest that before the active phase of the MJO in early December, convection occurred frequently over the island during the afternoon and at midnight. By contrast, during the active phase of the MJO in mid-December, afternoon convection over the island was delayed and suppressed, and midnight convection was suppressed. Numerical experiments also successfully replicated the main features of the observed modulations. In general, during the active phase of the MJO, the troposphere became drier in the Sumatra region. While the clouds reduced the solar radiation over the land, the sea breeze was also found to be delayed and weakened. As a result, the afternoon convection initiation was delayed and weakened. Further analyses suggested that the sea breeze was weakened mainly due to the orographic stagnation effect rather than the slightly reduced land-sea temperature contrast. On the other hand, the increased stratiform-anvil clouds induced the anomalous evaporative cooling in the midtroposphere and generated island-scale subsidence during the nighttime, which finally led to the suppression of inland convection. Overall, our study reveals the modulation of diurnal convection over Sumatra Island by an active phase of the MJO and also shows the potential role of land-sea interaction in convection initiation and maintenance.