Traffic Data-Empowered XGBoost-LSTM Framework for Infectious Disease Prediction

Large-scale infectious diseases pose a tremendous risk to humans, with global outbreaks of COVID-19 causing millions of deaths and trillions of dollars in economic losses. To minimize the damage caused by large-scale infectious diseases, it is necessary to develop infectious disease prediction models to provide assistance for prevention. In this paper, we propose an XGBoost-LSTM mixed framework that predicts the spread of infectious diseases in multiple cities and regions. According to big traffic data, it was found that population flow is closely related to the spread of infectious diseases. Clustering and dividing cities according to population flow can significantly improve prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, an XGBoost is used to predict the transmission trend based on the key features of infection. An LSTM is used to predict the transmission fluctuation based on infection-related multiple time series features. The mixed model combines transmission trends and fluctuations to predict infections accurately. The proposed method is evaluated on a dataset of highly pathogenic infectious disease transmission published by Baidu and compared with other advanced methods. The results show that the model has an excellent predictive effect and practical value for large-scale infectious disease prediction.