What is a “likely” amount? Representative (modal) values are considered likely even when their probabilities are low

•We examined lay people’s judgments of “likely” costs and other quantities.•“Likely” has been assumed to mean p > 60% for binary events.•But “likely” values in a distribution are representative values, regardless of probability.•People do not distinguish between “likely” and “most likely” (modal) quantities.•And do not base their probability estimates on proportions in a graph.