Balancing the Risks of Recurrent Ischaemic and Bleeding Events in a Stable Post ACS Population.

OBJECTIVE:To better guide decisions regarding antithrombotic treatment in individual patients surviving 6 months following an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) by balancing between subsequent recurrent ischaemic and bleeding risk. METHODS:Patients surviving 6 months following an ACS were followed in an Australian registry. Ischaemic (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke) and bleeding (≥BARC 2) events were collected. A dual binary outcome modelling strategy was used arriving at a common set of variables from which bleeding and ischaemic risk could be independently determined in individual patients. Patients in whom bleeding rates exceeded composite ischaemic event rates during the follow-up period were identified. RESULTS:The cohort comprised 5,905 patients in whom 215 experienced an ischaemic event and 49 a bleeding event. The single set of variables included in both ischaemic and bleeding models (C-statistics 0.71 and 0.72 respectively) included modified TIGRIS1 ischaemic score, mode of revascularisation, history of heart failure, anaemia, multivessel disease, readmission within 6 months of index ACS and age >75. In the majority, ischaemic events were more frequent than bleeding events. In higher risk patients post coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), bleeding events were more frequent than recurrent ischaemic events. CONCLUSION:The risk of recurrent ischaemic events exceeds bleeding in most patients followed 6 to 24 months following an ACS. Post CABG patients with comorbidities have a higher risk of bleeding over this period during which time attention should be directed towards modifiable bleeding risk factors including requirement for dual antiplatelet therapy.