Clean fleets, different streets: evaluating the effect of New York City’s clean bus program on changes to estimated ambient air pollution

Background Motor vehicles, including public transit buses, are a major source of air pollution in New York City (NYC) and worldwide. To address this problem, governments and transit agencies have implemented policies to introduce cleaner vehicles into transit fleets. Beginning in 2000, the Metropolitan Transit Agency began deploying compressed natural gas, hybrid electric, and low-sulfur diesel buses to reduce urban air pollution. Objective We hypothesized that bus fleet changes incorporating cleaner vehicles would have detectable effects on air pollution concentrations between 2009 and 2014, as measured by the New York City Community Air Survey (NYCCAS). Methods Depot- and route-specific information allowed identification of areas with larger or smaller changes in the proportion of distance traveled by clean buses. Data were assembled for 9670 300 m × 300 m grid cell areas with annual concentration estimates for nitrogen oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and black carbon (BC) from NYCCAS. Spatial error models adjusted for truck route presence and total traffic volume. Results While concentrations of all three pollutants declined between 2009 and 2014 even in the 39.7% of cells without bus service, the decline in concentrations of NO and NO 2 was greater in areas with more bus service and with higher proportional shifts toward clean buses. Conversely, the decline in BC concentration was slower in areas with more bus service and higher proportional clean bus shifts. Significance These results provide evidence that the NYC clean bus program impacted concentrations of air pollution, particularly in reductions of NO 2 . Further work can investigate the potential impact of these changes on health outcomes in NYC residents. Impact Statement Urban air pollution from diesel-burning buses is an important health exposure. The New York Metropolitan Transit Agency has worked to deploy cleaner buses into their fleet, but the impact of this policy has not been evaluated. Successful reductions in air pollution are critical for public health.