Dynamic Risk Analysis for Process Safety

Successful implementation of chemical production systems requires an effective mechanism to assess dynamic risk quantitatively. Existing works of dynamic risk analysis are based on mechanism examination and probability estimation. Complexity arises due to the difficulty while collecting historical accident data. Also utilizing the indicators obtained from the combination of multivariate variables cannot clearly represent the relationship between physical components and safety. To address the shortcomings of the existing methods, this paper proposed a dynamic risk analysis method for process safety. This is achieved by firstly using canonical variable analysis (CVA) to monitor the system, and then computing the remaining useful life (RUL) from simulation as the indicator representing the dynamic risk. A coal slurry gasification process is applied to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The method has the potential for the industry to understand how a failure occurred and at what time to prevent.