Building-Level Wastewater Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Occupied University Dormitories as an Outbreak Forecasting Tool: One Year Case Study

Congregate living poses one of the highest risk situations for the transmission of respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV-2. University dormitories exemplify such high-risk settings. We demonstrate the value of using building-level SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance as an early warning system to inform when prevalence testing of all building occupants is warranted. Coordinated daily testing of composite wastewater samples and clinical testing in dormitories was used to prompt the screening of otherwise unrecognized infected occupants. We overlay the detection patterns in the context of regular scheduled occupant testing to validate a wastewater detection model. The trend of wastewater positivity largely aligned well with the clinical positivity and epidemiology of dormitory occupants. However, the predictive ability of wastewater-surveillance to detect new positive cases is hampered by convalescent shedding in recovered/ noncontagious individuals as they return to the building. Building-level pooled wastewater-surveillance and forecasting is most productive for predicting new cases in low-prevalence instances at the community level. For higher-education facilities and other congregate living settings to remain in operation during a pandemic, a thorough surveillance-based decision-making system is vital. Building-level wastewater monitoring on a daily basis paired with regular testing of individual dormitory occupants is an effective and efficient approach for mitigating outbreaks on university campuses.