Update of a Prognostic Survival Model in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients Treated with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Using an Expansion Cohort

Background Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) treatment in recurrent/metastatic (R/M) head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) offers new therapeutic venues. We have previously developed a predictive survival model in this patient population based on clinical parameters, and the purpose of this study was to expand the study cohort and internally validate the model. Methods A single institutional retrospective analysis of R/M HNSCC patients treated with ICI. Clinical parameters collected included p-16 status, hemoglobin (Hb), albumin (Alb), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), neutrophil, lymphocyte and platelet counts. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to assess the impact of patient characteristics and clinical variables on survival. A nomogram was created using the rms package to generate individualized survival prediction. Results 201 patients were included, 47 females (23%), 154 males (77%). Median age was 61 years (IQR: 55-68). P-16 negative (66%). Median OS was 12 months (95% CI: 9.4, 14.9). Updated OS model included age, sex, absolute neutrophil count, absolute lymphocyte count, albumin, hemoglobin, LDH, and p-16 status. We stratified patients into three risk groups based on this model at the 0.33 and 0.66 quantiles. Median OS in the optimal risk group reached 23.7 months (CI: 18.5, NR), 13.8 months (CI: 11.1, 20.3) in the average risk group, and 2.3 months (CI: 1.7, 4.4) in the high-risk group. Following internal validation, the discriminatory power of the model reached a c-index of 0.72 and calibration slope of 0.79. Conclusions Our updated nomogram could assist in the precise selection of patients for which ICI could be beneficial and cost-effective.