Projected-field kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Cross-correlations: halo model and forecasts

The kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect, i.e., the Doppler boost of cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons caused by their scattering off free electrons in galaxy clusters and groups with non-zero bulk velocity, is a powerful window on baryons in the universe. We present the first halo-model computation of the cross-power spectrum of the "projected-field" kSZ signal with large-scale structure (LSS) tracers. We compare and validate our calculations against previous studies, which relied on N-body-calibrated effective formulas rather than the halo model. We forecast results for CMB maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (AdvACT), Simons Observatory (SO), and CMB-S4, and LSS survey data from the Dark Energy Survey, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (VRO), and Euclid. In cross-correlation with galaxy number density, for AdvACT x unWISE we forecast an 18o-projected-field kSZ detection using data already in hand. Combining SO CMB maps and unWISE galaxy catalogs, we expect a 62o-detection, yielding precise measurements of the gas density profile radial slopes. Additionally, we forecast first detections of the kSZ - galaxy weak lensing cross-correlation with AdvACT x VRO/Euclid (at 6a) and of the kSZ - CMB weak lensing cross-correlation with SO (at 16a). Finally, approximate to 10-20% precision measurements of the shape of the gas density profile should be possible with CMB-S4 kSZ - CMB lensing cross-correlation without using any external datasets.