Survival in Swedish patients with systemic sclerosis: a nationwide population-based matched cohort study

Objectives To conduct the first-ever nationwide, population-based cohort study investigating survival patterns of all patients with incident SSc in Sweden compared with matched individuals from the Swedish general population. Methods We used the National Patient Register to identify patients with incident SSc diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 and the Total Population Register to identify comparators (1:5), matched on sex, birth year and residential area. We followed them until death, emigration or the end of 2016. Follow-up of the general population comparators started the same date as their matched patients were included. We estimated all-cause survival using the Kaplan-Meier method, crude mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) using flexible parametric models. Results We identified 1139 incident patients with SSc and 5613 matched comparators. The median follow-up was 5.0 years in patients with SSc and 6.0 years for their comparators. During follow-up, 268 deaths occurred in patients with SSc and 554 in their comparators. The 5-year survival was 79.8% and the 10-year survival was 67.7% among patients with SSc vs 92.9% and 84.8%, respectively, for the comparators (P < 0.0001). The mortality rate in patients with SSc was 42.1 per 1000 person-years and 15.8 per 1000 person-years in their comparators, corresponding to an HR of 3.7 (95% CI 2.9, 4.7) at the end of the first year of follow-up and 2.0 (95% CI 1.4, 2.8) at the end of the follow-up period. Conclusion Despite advances in understanding the disease and in diagnostic methods over the past decades, survival is still severely impacted in Swedish patients diagnosed with SSc between 2004 and 2015.