Spleen volume-based non-invasive tool for predicting hepatic decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis

Non-invasive stratification of the liver decompensation risk remains unmet in people with compensated cirrhosis. This study aimed to develop a non-invasive tool (NIT) to predict hepatic decompensation.This retrospective study recruited 689 people with compensated cirrhosis (median age, 54 years; 441 men) from 5 centres from January 2016 to June 2020. Baseline abdominal computed tomography (CT), clinical features, and liver stiffness were collected, and then the first decompensation was registered during the follow-up. The spleen-based model was designed for predicting decompensation based on a deep learning segmentation network to generate the spleen volume and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-Cox. The spleen-based model was trained on the training cohort of 282 individuals (Institutions I-III) and was validated in 2 external validation cohorts (97 and 310 individuals from Institutions IV and V, respectively) and compared with the conventional serum-based models and the Baveno VII criteria.The decompensation rate at 3 years was 23%, with a 37.6-month median (IQR 21.1-52.1 months) follow-up. The proposed model showed good performance in predicting decompensation (C-index ≥0.84) and outperformed the serum-based models (C-index comparison test p <0.05) in both the training and validation cohorts. The hazard ratio (HR) for decompensation in individuals with high risk was 7.3 (95% CI 4.2-12.8) in the training and 5.8 (95% CI 3.9-8.6) in the validation (log-rank test, p <0.05) cohorts. The low-risk group had a negligible 3-year decompensation risk (≤1%), and the model had a competitive performance compared with the Baveno VII criteria.This spleen-based model provides a non-invasive and user-friendly method to help predict decompensation in people with compensated cirrhosis in diverse healthcare settings where liver stiffness is not available.People with compensated cirrhosis with larger spleen volume would have a higher risk of decompensation. We developed a spleen-based model and validated it in external validation cohorts. The proposed model might help predict hepatic decompensation in people with compensated cirrhosis when invasive tools are unavailable.