Prediction scale of cerebrovascular disease subtypes for high-risk population.

OBJECTIVES:Cerebrovascular disease can be roughly divided into 2 subtypes: Cerebral ischemia (CI) and cerebral hemorrhage (CH). No scale currently exist that can predict the subtypes of cerebrovascular diseases. This study aims to establish a prediction scale for the subtypes of cerebrovascular diseases. METHODS:A total of 1 200 cerebrovascular disease patients were included in this study, data from 1 081 (90%) patients were used to establish the CI-CH risk scale, and data from 119 (10%) patients were used to test it. Risk factors for the CI-CH risk scale were identified by 2 screens, with two-tailed student's t-test and two-tailed Fisher's exact test preliminarily and with logistic regression analysis further. The scores of each risk factor for CI-CH risk scale were determined according to the odds rate, and the cut-off point was determined by Youden index. RESULTS:Nine risk factors were ultimately selected for score system, including age (≥75 years old was -1, <75 years old was 0), BMI (<24 kg/m2 was 0, 24-28 kg/m2 was -1, >28 kg/m2 was -2), hypertension grade (grade 1 was 1, grade 2 was 2, and grade 3 was 3), diabetes status (no was 0, yes was -1), antihypertensive drug use (no was 0, yes was -2), alcohol consumption (<60 g/d was 1, ≥60 g/d was 2), uric acid (less than normal was 0, normal was -1, high than normal was -2), LDL cholesterol (<2 mmol/L was 0, 2-4 mmol/L was -1, and >4 mmol/L was -2), and HDL cholesterol (<1.55 mmol/L was 0, ≥1.55 mmol/L was 2). Patients with a score more than 0 were classified as the CH group, Conversely, they were assigned to the CI group; its sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 74.5%, 77.9%, and 76.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The CI-CH risk scale can help the clinician predict the subtypes of cerebrovascular diseases.