Assessing spatial patterns of HIV prevalence and interventions in semi-urban settings in South Africa. Implications for spatially targeted interventions

Equitable allocation of resources targeting the human immun-odeficiency virus (HIV) at the local level requires focusing inter-ventions in areas of the greatest need. Understanding the geo-graphical variation in the HIV epidemic and uptake of selected HIV prevention and treatment programmes are necessary to iden-tify such areas. Individual-level HIV data were obtained from a 2012 national HIV survey in South Africa. Spatial regression models on each outcome measure (HIV infection, sub-optimal condom use or non-anti-retroviral treatment (ART) adjusted for spatial random effects at the ward level were fitted using WIN -BUGS software. In addition, ward-level data was utilized to esti-mate condom use coverage and ART initiation rates which were obtained from routinely collected data in 2012. Ordinary Kriging was used to produce smoothed maps of HIV infection, condom use coverage and ART initiation rates. HIV infection was associ-ated with individuals undertaking tertiary education [posterior odds ratio (POR): 19.53; 95% credible intervals (CrI): 3.22-84.93]. Sub-optimal condom use increased with age (POR: 1.09; 95%CrI: 1.06-1.11) and was associated with being married (POR: 4.14; 95%CrI: 1.23-4.28). Non-ART use was associated with being married (POR: 6.79; 95%CrI: 1.43-22.43). There were clus-ters with high HIV infection, sub-optimal condom use, and non -ART use in Ekurhuleni, an urban and semi-urban district in Gauteng province, South Africa. Findings show the need for expanding condom programmes and/or strengthening other HIV prevention programmes such as pre-exposure prophylaxis and encouraging sustained engagement in HIV care and treatment in the identified areas with the greatest need in Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality.