The Exit Choices of European Private Firms: A Dynamic Empirical Analysis

Using a European private firm sample, we conduct a dynamic empirical analysis of private firm exit choice, previously modeled as a one-time IPO versus acquisition decision. Going public may yield firms a valuation premium (over a direct acquisition) through a post-IPO acquisition, but may also involve possible delisting at a valuation discount. We explicitly account for these dynamic considerations and show that such considerations alter firms’ initial exit trade-off: firms that anticipate a higher post-IPO acquisition probability are more likely to go public initially; those that anticipate a higher post-IPO delisting probability are more likely to choose a direct acquisition.