Symposium review: Defining a pathway to climate neutrality for US dairy cattle production

The US dairy industry has made substantial gains in reducing the greenhouse gas emission intensity of a gallon of milk. At the same time, consumer and investor interest for improved environmental benefits or reduced environmental impact of food production continues to grow. Following a trend of increasing greenhouse gas emission commitments for businesses across sectors of the economy, the US dairy industry has committed to a goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Paris Climate Accord's goal is to reduce warming of the atmosphere to less than 1.5 to 2°C based on preindustrial levels, which is different from emission goals of historic climate agreements that focus on emission reduction targets. Most of the emissions that account for the greenhouse gas footprint of a gallon of milk are from the short-lived climate pollutant CH4, which has a half-life of approximately 10 yr. The relatively new accounting system Global Warming Potential Star and the unit CO2 warming equivalents gives the industry the appropriate metrics to quantify their current and projected warming impact on future emissions. Incorporating this metric into potential future emissions pathways can allow the industry to understand the magnitude of emissions reductions needed to no longer contribute additional warming. Deterministic modeling was performed across the dairy industry's emission areas of enteric fermentation, manure management, feed production, and other upstream emissions necessary for dairy production. By reducing farm-level absolute emissions by 23% based on current levels, there is the opportunity for the US dairy industry to realize climate neutrality within the next few decades.