The Value of Different Short-Term Risk Scoring Models in Predicting Long-Term Death of Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background and aims: To compare the value of three commonly used cardiovascular short-term risk scoring models, the GRACE score, TIMI score, and HEART score, in predicting the long-term prognosis of patients with acute myocardial infarction. Methods: The hospitalization data of patients who were hospitalized in West China Hospital of Sichuan University from 2011 to 2013 and diagnosed with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were collected. The patients were scored by GRACE score, TIMI score, and HEART score. The long-term follow-up of patients was conducted until the end of January 2021. All-cause death and time of death of patients were confirmed by telephone follow-up, electronic medical record query, and household registration information. The predictive ability of different risk scores for long-term prognosis was compared according to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC), and the ability to distinguish patients with different risk levels was compared according to Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Results: The study ultimately included 2220 patients, with a median follow-up of 8 years and 454 (20.5%) deaths until the end of follow-up. Whether in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients or non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients, the AUC value of the GRACE score (both AUC = 0.734) was significantly higher than the TIMI score (AUC = 0.675, p < 0.01; AUC = 0.665, p < 0.01) and HEART score (AUC = 0.632, p < 0.01; AUC = 0.611, p < 0.01) until the end of follow-up. In terms of risk stratification, the Kaplan-Meier survival curve shows that both THE GRACE score and TIMI score can distinguish AMI patients with different risk levels (p < 0.01), but the risk stratification ability of the HEART score in AMI patients was poor (p > 0.05). Conclusion: The GRACE risk score could represent a more accurate model to assess long-term death of acute myocardial infarction, but further studies are required.