Decoupling Relationship between Industrial Land Expansion and Economic Development in China

Economic expansion has caused increasingly serious land resource problems, and the decoupling of urban industrial land expansion from economic development has become a big topic for intensive development. The current research has mainly concerned industrial land efficiency, a single, static indicator, compared to a decoupling model, which takes into account two variables and gives a full expression of the spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics. However, little attention has been paid to the relationship between industrial land expansion and economic development in China from the perspective of decoupling. Based on a combination of Tapio's decoupling model and spatial analysis methods, this paper investigates the decoupling relationship between industrial land expansion and economic development in Chinese cities from 2010 to 2019. On that basis, we divided the study area into three policy zones and made differentiated policy recommendations. In addition, based on the decoupling model, we obtained the decoupling indices of the cities and grouped the cities into eight decoupling types. After the spatial autocorrelation analysis, we further verified the spillover effect of decoupling with the results of urban spatial differentiation. This paper draws the following conclusions: (1) Urban industrial land expansion and economic development exhibit marked and increasingly significant spatial heterogeneity and agglomeration. (2) Industry and economy are in weak decoupling in most cities, but there are a growing number of cities in negative decoupling. (3) Decoupled cities are shifting from the southeast coast to the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, while negatively decoupled cities keep spreading from northeast and south China to their periphery, with clear signs of re-coupling. (4) It is necessary to develop urban industrial land supply and supervision policies according to local actuality and to implement differentiated control of industrial land for cities and industrial sectors with different decoupling types. To some extent, this paper reveals the evolution dynamics, performances, and strategies of industrial land, providing a decision basis for industrial land management policies and industrial planning in China and other countries at similar stages.