Comparative Study on Transmission Mechanism of Supply Shortage Risk in the International Trade of Iron Ore, Pig Iron and Crude Steel

Steel is a basic industrial raw material, and it has a wide range of applications in all areas of production and life in the society. Countries carry out international steel trade to ensure their economic development. Applying complex network theory, this paper constructs the steel international trade multiplex network. Based on complex network cascade failure, this paper constructed supply risk transmission model in the international steel trade multiplex network to study the supply risk transmission mechanism. The results show that as the supply shock increasing, countries affected by the supply shortage risk are gradually increasing. The key transmission sources are Russia, Australia, Brazil and other countries. The supply shortage risk transmission route starts from one source, after pass through several intermediary countries, spreading to the entire iron ore, pig iron and crude steel international trade network, showing a multi-core radiation network structure. In the process of transmission, small associations are formed due to the close cooperation. Thus, it is very significant to study the supply risk transmission mechanism in the international steel trade multiplex network, so that it can make recommendations for governments to formulate international trade and industrial adjustment policies of steel industry from a more macro perspective.