Urban land use change simulation and spatial responses of ecosystem service value under multiple scenarios: A case study of Wuhan, China

Simulation of changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) caused by land use change in Wuhan under multiple scenarios is of great significance for ensuring urban ecological security and enhancing regional ecosystem service values. The city of Wuhan was selected as the study area, and the changes in land use and ESV in Wuhan over the past 31 years were analyzed and calculated based on five-phase remote sensing images and statistical yearbooks for 1990, 1998, 2006, 2014 and 2021. On this basis, the CA-Markov model and the multi objective planning (MOP) model were used to simulate the land use change in the study area in 2040 under four scenarios (natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario, ecological protection scenario and urban develop-ment scenario), and the total ESV was estimated under each scenario. The total value of ecosystem services was estimated under each scenario, and grid tools were applied to visualize the spatial distribution and degree of aggregation of ecosystem services. The results show that: (1) The most obvious feature of land use change in Wuhan from 1990 to 2021 is the sharp reduction in arable land area and the rapid expansion of build-up land area. Over the past 31 years, the arable land area decreased by 78322.4 hm2, and the build-up land area increased by 52559.28 hm2. (2) From 1990 to 2021, Wuhan's total ESV at the five timepoints (1990, 1998, 2006, 2014, 2021) was 74.554 billion yuan, 71.512 billion yuan, 69.632 billion yuan, 73.433 billion yuan and 68.548 billion yuan, respectively. Overall, there has been a downward trend in volatility. (3) Under the four scenarios, the ESV in 2040 is projected to be 72.777 billion yuan, 70.969 billion yuan, 74.097 billion yuan or 70.620 billion yuan, respectively. Among them, the ecological protection scenario is the optimal simulation choice. (4) The cold and hot spots of ESV show an aggregated distribution over a large area, with the hot spots mainly concentrated in the central and southeastern parts of Wuhan and the cold spots mainly located in the northeastern and north-western portions of Wuhan. Simulating the future land use change trends in Wuhan and exploring the responses of ecosystem service values under various scenarios are conducive to the construction of a new pattern of urban land space development and protection and can provide a scientific basis and a reference for decision-making for comprehensively promoting the sustainable development of Wuhan and other metropolitan areas in China in the future.