Prepubertal BMI, pubertal growth patterns, and long-term BMI: Results from a longitudinal analysis in Chinese children and adolescents from 2005 to 2016

Objective To assess the effects of prepubertal BMI on pubertal growth patterns, and the influence of prepubertal BMI and pubertal growth patterns on long-term BMI among Chinese children and adolescents. Methods A total of 9606 individuals aged between 7 and 18 years from longitudinal surveys in Zhongshan city of China from 2005 to 2016 were enrolled. Age at peak height velocity (APHV) and peak height velocity (PHV) were estimated using Super-Imposition by Translation and Rotation (SITAR) model. Associations between prepubertal BMI, APHV, PHV, and long-term overweight and obesity were assessed by linear regression and multinominal logistic regression. Scatter plots were elaborated to show the associations between prepubertal BMI and pubertal growth patterns according to prepubertal BMI categories. Results Prepubertal BMI Z-Score was positively correlated with long-term BMI Z-Score, and negatively correlated with APHV in both sexes. In addition, there was a negative association between prepubertal BMI Z-Score and PHV in boys. With 1-year decrease in APHV, risk of long-term underweight decreased by 92%, while overweight increased by 33% in boys. Corresponding risk of long-term underweight and overweight for girls decreased by 42% and increased by 20%, respectively. Conclusion High prepubertal BMI levels were associated with earlier APHV and lower PHV, and the early onset of pubertal development could increase the risks of long-term overweight and obesity at 17–18 years of age both in boys and girls. Such evidence emphasized the importance of reducing prepubertal obesity risks combined with appropriate pubertal development timing, including later APHV and higher PHV, so as to prevent the obesity and related cardiovascular diseases in adulthood.