Natural Disaster and Migration Trends in Flood Prone Agricultural Areas of Indonesia

Abstract Objectives Sudden onset severe natural disasters are more closely associated with climate related migration than slower onset disasters in Indonesia. This analysis examines whether severe flooding was related to migration in the five years prior to the 5th wave of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), and whether there were differences between agricultural versus non-agricultural households. Methods We present descriptive statistics of the subset of the population that reported having experienced natural disaster (3,183 (19%) households) in wave five of IFLS. Analysis is ongoing and will include statistical modelling. The main outcome is whether the household had moved. The independent variables are experienced a flood disaster that was severe, defined as causing death or injury, financial loss, or relocation, in the prior 5 years and whether the household owned land for farming. All analysis was conducted using Stata software. Results Overall, among disaster impacted households, 12.7% experienced a disaster that was severe enough to cause death or injury, financial loss, or relocation. Flooding was the most commonly reported disaster (45%), followed by volcano (17.6%) and earthquake (16%). Compared to those that migrated versus those that did not, 48.7% vs. 42.7% were affected by flood, respectively, and 19% vs. 36.4% owned land for farming. Conclusions Delineating between a severe disasters and less severe disasters allows for more strategic disaster management strategies. In areas prone to severe disaster, adaptation policies aimed towards vulnerable farmers that own land may bolster response strategies. Funding Sources NSF.