Is there evidence of mild explosive behavior in Alaska North Slope crude oil prices?

Alaska has long been important to U.S. oil production. With the sixth largest amount of proven reserves of any state and >95% of oil production occurring on the North Slope, Alaska will continue to be an important factor in U.S. energy production. Given the importance of the North Slope crude oil to West Coast refineries, it is surprising that very few studies have investigated the prevailing price of crude oil from the North Slope: the Alaska North Slope West Coast price (ANS). This study provides evidence of mildly explosive behavior in the time series of ANS price relative to the consumer price level, Alaska oil production, and a measure of oil stocks by utilizing the recursive generalized supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller of Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015). The sample period spans from May 1987 until September 2020 and we find evidence of mild explosive behavior prior to and during the 2007–2009 recession. Our findings are consistent with others who found mildly explosive behavior in other oil prices during the same period.