Risk assessment of harmful algal blooms (HAB) occurrence in the agroecosystem: A hydro-ecologic modeling framework and environmental risk matrix

This paper was aimed at assessing the risk of HAB occurrence in a highly cultivated watershed and evaluating the effectiveness of N and P fertilizer reduction practices in mitigating this risk under future climate projections. To achieve this objective, a modelling framework was developed for HAB risk assessment under different environmental stressors including climate changes and different land management practices. The modelling framework used a fully distributed physical-based hydrologic model, MIKE SHE, and a hydrodynamic river model, MIKE 11, coupled with ECO-Lab to simulate the fate and transport of different forms of N and P in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (USRB), a highly cultivated watershed in central Illinois. Three different land management scenarios based on the N and P reduction target in "The Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan" were simulated to assess the P nonpoint source behavior and HAB risk level in the USRB from 2020 to 2050 under extreme climate projections. Our results predicted that the HAB risk in USRB is relatively low even with increased bioavailable P (BAP) concentration and longer duration with high BAP concentration due to low water temperature. Reducing N or P application rates by 50% was able to offset the negative effects on HAB occurrence from extreme climate projections apart from spring. Within P and N, regulating P was found to be more effective in reducing HAB risks in the USRB while regulating N was more effective in controlling HAB downstream. Understanding the dynamics of N and P in causing the occurrence of HAB was expected to improve the mitigation measures that we implement at the field level.